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16 results for “Research

Publication

ML-based Probabilistic Prediction of 2m Temperature and Total Precipitation

A daily probabilistic forecast model predicting 2m temperature and total precipitation globally, closing the skill gap between numerical weather prediction and seasonal forecasting. Combines physics-based ensembles, climate modes and recent climatology into features for Extreme Gradient Boosting, U-Net and Natural Gradient Boosting, and consistently outperforms ECMWF 46-day forecasts and climatology. Co-authored across IBM Research South Africa, Kenya, Brazil and the US.

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